As France welcomes the world to the 33rd Summer Olympic Games, Row360 reviews the competitive landscape with three of the sharpest minds in rowing. Welcome Grace Prendergast (GP), Moe Sbihi (MS), and Camilla Hadland-Horrocks (CHH).

New Zealand Olympic and world champion Grace Prendergast retired from international rowing in 2022. The Boat Race winner and two-time Olympian cemented her status as the world’s best-bowsider at Tokyo, winning a gold medal in the women’s pair, with Kerri Williams, and a silver in the women’s eight. 

Moe Sbihi, who retired after Tokyo 2020, bookended his Team GB performances with Olympic bronze medals in the men’s eight. In the Rio Olympiad he secured Olympic, European and world titles in the British flagship boat, the men’s four. At Paris he will be providing punditry for the BBC.

Camilla Hadland-Horrocks is a commentator for World Rowing, British Rowing and Henley Royal Regatta and former junior world champion in the GB women’s eight. 

Which events are you most looking forward to?

Moe Sbihi: The men’s single because of what happened at Lucerne. That result threw a spanner in the works. Everyone assumed Olli Zeidler [GER] would win but Simon Van Dorp’s [NED] performance changes everything. It feels like a mental game now for Zeidler. In the Lucerne final, he went out and blew. It could definitely play on his mind come the finals at Paris. 

In the singles it is all about how easily you can progress through the early rounds: you don’t want a quarterfinal of death. Back in the day, I remember watching Ondrej Synek race some brutal semifinals and have nothing left in the legs for the medal races. 

I’m looking forward to the women’s single sculls, especially Karolien Florijn [NED]. She’s so strong. It’s been fantastic to watch her switch from sweep to sculling. She’s taken it all in her stride, racing against the legend that is Emma Twigg [NZL] and Australia’s up and coming talent Tara Rigney. Florijn is only 26 years old: if she wants to she could have another Olympics or two after Paris. She might become a multiple Olympic gold medallist.

Camilla Hadland-Horrocks: Even though it’s one of the most predictable podiums I’m looking forward to the women’s single sculls. I doubt there will be any surprises. I’m expecting the same podium as it’s been for the last few years because Karolien Florijn, Emma Twigg and Tara Rigney are just too far ahead of everyone else. It’s got to be Florijn for gold, hasn’t it? She’s sitting on a perfect winning streak; I don’t think she’ll do a Zeidler and lose it at the Olympics.

The Netherlands have been clever this year. They’ve been so internal and not cared what they should or shouldn’t be turning up to. They’ve stuck to what they think is best for them for delivering at the Olympics. By not doing the Europeans, they’ve spent the early season focussing on themselves. Whereas the British were tempted into racing at Szeged. Out of those two big squads, we will see which strategy pays off. 

Grace Prendergast: It’s an interesting dynamic. I agree Florijn is definitely the favourite for gold, but if she gets overwhelmed by the occasion Twigg is ready to take it from her. And then you have Rigney who’s still improving and is quickly learning to make that leap. But watching Florijn row, she doesn’t look like someone who will panic under the spotlight and grandeur of the occasion. That said, the Olympics is a different ball game and if you get your confidence knocked early on things can change. You saw that a bit in Rio 2016 with Kim Brennan who came third in her heat but she rallied and went on to win gold. 

I’m most looking forward to the pairs, fours and singles. I’ve a lot of vested interests. The obvious one is Kerri [Williams] in New Zealand’s women’s four. I’m excited because I know what she can bring to a crew. This four has only had a short runway but the other three rowers are raw, green talents so if Kerri can impart her knowledge on to them it could fly. That showed at World Cup III, so I hope they can find their way on to the podium at Paris.  

I know there’s a New Zealand men’s pair so I feel unloyal saying this but I’m looking forward to seeing what Tom [George] and Ollie [Wynne-Griffith] can do in the British men’s pair. I trained with them at Cambridge [UK] during my last season as an international athlete, and I got to see their journey – coming out of the eight and into the pair.

Tom Ransley (TR): If you feel conflicted what about tipping a one-two but not specifying the order?

GP: Yes! Great Britain and New Zealand in the top two would be perfect. Of course, you have the Swiss world champions too. And I know they haven’t been in the medals this season, but can you ever really rule out the Sinkovics? There’s always some rogue crew that pulls it out at the major championships.

TR: Camilla, what’s your take for the top spot of the women’s fours?

CHH: It’s a tough one. I don’t know if that’s my inherent bias but I’m going to go for Great Britain. For me, it’s between the Dutch and the British, not dissimilar to the quads actually. The Aussies have all changed so I don’t think they will feature. The Danish can get an honourable mention here too. They qualified all three sweep boats at FOPQR, which is awesome. The Sweephearts delivering a sweep sensation!

MS: The British women’s four is having a great season. They’ve found more speed by moving Helen [Glover] to bow and bringing Sam Redgrave in. I can’t see anyone else winning. Rebecca Shorten is the best and most-gifted strokewoman in the boat park. She can row with anybody, over the years she’s won the British trials with so many different rowers, like Karen Bennett, Helen Glover, and Rowan McKellar. She’s an enabler.

The British women’s quad are the defending world champions but they didn’t quite pick up where they left off. Varese, the first world cup this year, was a topsy-turvy regatta for them. They have since turned it around, which is always a mark of a good crew, and have found some form. I’d pick them as favourites but with the caveat that the rest of the world now know the British are beatable. From a psychologically point of view, when I was rowing I used to think if you’ve beaten a crew once then you can beat them again.

TR: Could any of the national teams get a clean sweep?

GP: Romania’s women rowers have a history of doing this but the Dutch will be hard to beat in the women’s pair. Perhaps, the Dutch men’s sculling team but I expect this might be Ollie Zeidler’s year in the single. I’m not totally confident because he is a bit unpredictable. Given his recent form, all he needs to do is row effectively under pressure. So the only realistic one is the British men’s sweep getting a clean sweep. Once again, selfishly, I’m hoping for New Zealand to come out on top in men’s fours: I’d love to see them do it. 

So maybe the Dutch men’s sculling but as I said, this could be Ollie’s year. Oh dear, I almost want to whisper it! Don’t jinx it. 

MS: There’s a question mark around some of the other sculling nations, who historically have done well, but the Dutch men’s sculling team are looking very formidable. The way their quad and double row is so aesthetically pleasing – and with that recent win from Simon Van Dorp in the single the clean sweep isn’t impossible. It shows the strengths and depth that the Dutch have. As well as the athletes themselves, credit ought to go to the Dutch coaches and their performance setup, it seems like they have the right things in place. 

Team GB has a chance to create history too. A lot of strength and depth there. Those guys have form and a unique set of crews. But I’d say, on the Lucerne showing, the men’s coxless four has work to do. New Zealand are looking strong in that event but I wouldn’t write off the Aussie men’s four either, even though they’ve loaded the eight. Still Christian Felkel [GBR coach] knows what he is doing and they are two-time world champions. It’s a battle between the ears.

TR: Does that boat – the British men’s four – come with baggage? What was your experience in the run up to Rio?

MS: Yes it does. When we knew we were continuing the legacy, as everyone would call it, I wanted to be a part of that legacy. Don’t get me wrong I still felt the pressure. Of course there’s going to be pressure. But at Tokyo, it was a big deal for the four to be themselves. I don’t think they wanted to take on that ‘legacy pressure’ as much. But you can’t shy away from it: history is history.

One of the reasons why Team GB has done so well is because we’ve had Sir Steve [Redgrave] and Sir Matt [Pinsent] pass on those links, and Jürgen [Gröbler] coaching the four for multiple Olympiads – and to win five on the trot is great [2000 to 2016]. As an athlete in the men’s four you stand on the foundations that all of those athletes built. It’s like the All Blacks jersey. You look after it until the next person comes along.

TR: Camilla, could the British boys sweep the three men’s sweep events?

CHH: I might come to regret this but like Moe I think the men’s four might be the ones to let the side down. If you’d have asked me a year ago I would have said it was going to be the men’s pair to miss out. 

It was a real statement for Tom [George] and Ollie [Wynne-Griffith] to stay in that pair when there was – let’s not say an easy option as nothing is ever easy at this level, but there were other options to change things around. For example making the four more secure: so stack two boats and firm up the chance of two golds, rather than hedging on all three with a diminished chance in the men’s four.

The pair backing themselves has paid off, but only marginally so. If they continue to row the way they have been all season, then the British are favourites over the Swiss, the Spanish and the Irish men’s pairs.

The four are a lovely combination who have come together almost by accident. We said this right at the start of the Olympiad – on paper they don’t scream world-champs-gold-medal-winning-crew, but something clicked and it worked. But in the final year running into an Olympics, you need more than that.

The Brits have loads of finesse but lack power. The other two top fours they are up against have tons of power. The Americans and the Kiwis, who have tons of power and tons of finesse. They might have met their match in the New Zealanders. New Zealand can match the British for finesse and out power them. It could be a race that comes down the conditions on the day. 

TR: A lot of pressure in this one. New Zealand seemed to have timed their effort well. 

CHH: Yes. And people saw the Italians as having swooped in and suddenly landed as top contenders but I think that was an early season red-herring. They had qualification pressure on them, whereas the Kiwis have avoided all of that. The other thing is that none of the Brits have competed at an Olympics before. That was such a factor at Tokyo. Lining up on an Olympic start line… well you all [TR, GP, MS] know what it’s like. Half of the New Zealand four have that experience, namely strokeman Matt [Macdonald] and behind him Tom [Murray] both from the gold medal winning eight. People underestimate that. 

TR: How about on the sculling side?

CHH: Dutch, Dutch, and Dutch! It’s a bold call but I’m backing the Netherlands for the treble in the men’s sculling. I hope the Zeidler family doesn’t come looking for me for saying this, but I don’t have confidence that Ollie [Zeidler] will deliver when it really counts.

I’ve been to that course in Paris it gets super rough! The juniors last year was some of the worst weather I have ever seen. Ever. I know it isn’t guaranteed to be bad weather but based on the available data it’s unlikely to be nice. On a lovely day in Lucerne in near-perfect conditions, if Simon [van Dorp] can beat Zeidler then I’d back him to do it in the rough stuff too.

There was a lot riding on that win for Zeidler in Lucerne. It was going to be his hundredth win, his girlfriend [Sofia Meakin SUI] baked him a cake to celebrate the hundredth win but he didn’t get it. There was pressure on him, he knew he was going for the win. And he missed it.

When the pressure is on – so far – he has not consistently delivered. We saw it in the semifinals at Tokyo and again at his home course in Munich for the 2022 Europeans. That’s my reasoning for going with Simon over Ollie.  You can’t pick and choose the day you race.

With the demise of Olympic lightweight rowing two crews will effectively be crowned Olympic champions for perpetuity, but which two?

MS: We [MS and TR] have both rowed with Greg Searle so we know what it is like to row with a current lifelong Olympic champion. Very exciting.

I can’t see Imogen [Grant] and Emily [Craig] losing given their recent form – especially the way in which they’ve been winning their races. But – and it’s a big one – there has only ever been one defending world champion lightweight women’s double who has gone to win the Olympics the following year. That could well be a mind game they need to overcome. What a challenge.

GP: I agree. If I had to put money on any single crew across all the events I would put it on the British women’s lightweight double to win gold. They have been the most dominant and consistent. They’re in a league of their own. With their experience in Tokyo [fourth place] they know what it is like to not come away with a medal, that will work in their favour. I’ve raced with Imogen [at CUBC] and she’s very impressive!

I’m excited by the New Zealanders too. Jackie Kiddle has had a tough rowing career: she’s always been good enough to be an Olympic champion. She won the 2019 world championships but missed out on Tokyo after Zoe [McBride] retired.

CHH: The Kiwis could be a nice surprise in this event but it’s got to be the Brits for gold. The Americans are the next best contenders. That’s my podium. Which way around the USA and New Zealand end up, I’m not sure. Kiddle and Cox are having the time of their lives.

TR: What about the French Olympic silver medallists?

CHH: They won FOPQR and won it by a long way. Are they doing enough? In Poznan they finished behind the New Zealanders – and it was difficult to gauge the form at World Cup III.

It is a steep old hill to climb in the lightweight women’s double, if you’re not in the mix, as proved by the world championships last year. There were crews in the B-Final that were expected to breeze into qualification spots, but didn’t! To make up that distance and more, to be on the Olympic podium is a really big ask. 

Before Tokyo the French were hitting the medal spots consistently enough to be contenders, this time around that’s not the case.

TR: And on the men’s side?

CHH: One of the harder ones to call. Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, and Italy? Fintan [McCarthy, IRL] will hate me for this but I’m going to back the Swiss – they race well and train super hard, they’ve done the mileage. At Lucerne, the Irish showed that they are beatable. I know the Swiss haven’t been firing on all cylinders recently because of injury but once Raphael is back I think they will put it all together and come good when it counts. Then it is a toss up between the Italians and Irish for the minor medals. 

MS: It would be fantastic to see the Irish win again. They are not the most conventional crew in terms of technique. When I think about lightweight doubles rowing I tend to think silky-smooth and glossy, like the bladework of Zac Purchase and Mark Hunter. But Paul is such an impressive rower, and so too is Fintan. It is great to have a character like Paul in our sport. I’d like to see them pull it off.

GP: That’s an interesting one because if I was going on recent performance it would be different from who I would have picked last year. I would have always backed the Irish, they have this ability to win regardless of what’s happening or how the rowing looks! But at Lucerne they finished third. I still back Paul O’Donovan [IRL] to get it done on the day.

I also think the French have been impressive. They’ve done it the hard way by qualifying via FOPQR but I wouldn’t rule them out. A Home Olympics gives them a home advantage and a bit of a helping hand. I know there’s pressure and I know it is hard to peak twice but watching them race this season has been impressive. 

TR: Is O’Donovan’s engine starting to creak? There’s a lot of mileage on the clock.

GP: His training cycles are very unusual. I chatted to him a few years back and he said he was only doing ten hours of training a week, that was just before the 2022 World Championships. He has a lot of confidence in his training and manages to balance a lot of medical studies and work outside of that. If he’s doing it well he’ll be on for a good peak come Paris. He’s certainly an impressive athlete.

TR: Grace, as the reigning Olympic champion in the women’s pair, who might you be handing over that title to?

GP: Probably the Dutch. We raced them in 2022 and it was very much the start of their journey in the pair. Every year since they seem to have come into their own more and more in that boat. I haven’t seen anyone challenge them to the point where seeds of doubt might start to creep in, so for me the Dutch are favourites. 

Historically, the Australian women’s pair has been very good too. Definitely my toughest battles in the pair were against Australia. Part of the motivation for Annabelle McIntyre and Jessica Morrison will be to right what happened to them at Tokyo, they doubled up in the four and the pair but ended up in the B-Final of the pairs. They were dominant at World Cup III this year but in there one race against the Dutch, at Lucerne a few weeks earlier, they finished second.

CHH:  I agree: Dutch vs Australia. I definitely think Ymkje Clevering and Veronique Meester [NED] have done enough to be the favourites. They’ve been completely rock solid and unfazed all season. No one has got close enough to call it any other way. I’m just not seeing Morrison and MacIntyre get anywhere near them really.

TR: Which is a shame after they were such strong contenders at Tokyo?

CHH: The field is stronger now. A lot of teams jumped into the four when it returned for Tokyo because they saw an opportunity in that boat class. This time around the four is more developed and less people are gunning after that one. So it has split people up, the Dutch are a perfect example – they came into the pair from the four since the last Olympics.

The scheduling really messed the Aussies over in Tokyo, which could always be a possibility in Paris, given the likely weather.

TR: It was truly biblical at last year’s test event in Paris where the junior athletes were soaked to the bone at the Under 19s World Championships. Will the weather prove significant this summer?

GP: Weather could be a big thing. When I think of ‘rowing’ and ‘weather’ my mind immediately jumps to Ollie [Zeidler]. I’m sure he is aware of that reputation, and I expect he has spent time preparing for all conditions.

In terms of other countries the Dutch row on the rough all the time, as do we. Actually I think New Zealanders tend to excel when it get rough. I think the weather can be an evener, it’s about how well you can deal with the conditions as opposed to who has the biggest wattage or erg numbers. 

Rough water doesn’t always favour the favourites; you can sometimes get real surprise results. I think we saw this at Tokyo, there were a lot of crabs out there. I remember sitting in the team room before our semifinals just watching the racing. Three races in a row came down the course and each had big crabs in them. It was nerve-racking! 

TR: Any new talent sneaking under the radar that might emerge at Paris.

GP: She’s not exactly new talent but I’d like to give a shout out toVirginia Diaz Spanish. I used to race her in the pair, she stroked the Spanish pair at Tokyo. This Olympiad she switched into the single and qualified it in Lucerne at the Last Chance Regatta. I’ve been really impressed watching her journey, switching boats and getting better and better every single race. I hope she does well.

MS: In terms of growing the sport I’m very proud to see a Moroccan sculler in the women’s single sculls. Majdouline El Allaoui is a bit of an unsung hero, she qualified via the African Qualification regatta in October last year. My dad and a lot of my family are from Morocco so I always look out for Moroccan crews, the last time I remember seeing them race was at the 2015 World Championships in Aiguebelette. It will be great to see the Moroccan flag in Paris 2024. 

CHH: The Norwegians have been the big surprise this season in the women’s double sculls event. It is going to be interesting to see what happens at Paris. After the Americans performance at Lucerne, and with the Romanians having not raced anything other than the Europeans where they got beaten, I think one of two things will happen.

The Romanians are going to burst back on to the scene and win gold, and we should never ever have doubted them. Or the race between the Americans, Australians and the Norwegians which has happened all season will push them on to a level beyond the 2023 standouts Romania. 

MS: It is a very different strategy. Most Olympic cycles I’d say Romania almost race too much. This time around they are coming in relatively cold. The Romanian women’s double were so impressive and so dominant in the last cycle but we’ve hardly seen them this year. Only when they lost to the Norwegians and the Lithuanians at Europeans.

CHH: I just can’t see how the Romanians not racing since a loss at Europeans will have helped them at all. What are they learning by not racing these other very quick crews?

And you’ve also got the Lithuanians who are a bit like the Damir Martins of the women’s doubles. They sort of come and go and you can get an absolutely electric performance from them – like we saw at the Europeans in Bled last year, pushing the Romanians the entire way down the course: where’s this come from!? Or they are in the B-Final, like they were at Lucerne. So very changeable. On their day the Lithuanians could be on the podium – like they were in 2016.

I think the work that the Americans and the Australians have been doing will be very beneficial and we’ll see them fighting for the gold.

TR: I had an interesting chat with a close friend of one of the Norwegians, who told me they were enjoying themselves and having a great time. It reminded me of Jürgen Gröbler’s saying, ‘go for gold with good fun and hard work’. Sometimes a positive attitude can make all the difference.

CHH: You see that a lot. The crew that genuinely enjoys the process tends to be the crew that surprises people when it comes to game day. 

TR: Grace, was it fun to double up at Tokyo? What are the added pressures of doubling up?

GP: If the racing program stays as planned – nothing comes into it in terms of fatigue. In our Tokyo planning we knew that if we raced every race when it was supposed to be held then we would be racing fresh every time. That didn’t happen. If you’ve nailed your prep doubling up is fine, as long as you have clear priorities. We were very clear on what boat we would pre-row if both boats were racing on the same day. All those kinds of things. 

I wouldn’t do the four and the pair, but the pair and the eight is doable. As long as you are confident of getting through the early rounds unscathed. It’s an interesting dynamic because it makes qualifying directly from heat to final in the eight much more important.

TR: What’s your take on the women’s eights heading to Paris?

GP: This one is a hard one to call. Perhaps one of the events which is more up for grabs. It might come down to who is performing best on the day. It’s interesting because there’s been a lot of doubling up throughout the Olympiad. For the first few years it was a question of who is going to prioritise what.

I feel like the British women’s eight have come a long way this season and are rowing well. The Australians were super strong at the third world cup, but it’s tough to tell because of the lack of other eights racing. Still ones to watch though. Romania have such a history in this event. When I raced the eight I was always terrified they’d unleash a big sprint and get us at the end.

Strangely, despite being Olympic champions I think people are overlooking Canada. They caught everyone off guard at Lucerne and they have so much Olympic experience in that crew. I’d put them as favourites. Experience is massive in this event. That was my lesson from Rio, by the time I came to Tokyo we had gained experience and it was a huge advantage.  

TR: Moe, your final run down the Olympic track at Tokyo was called by Henry Fieldman who coxes the British women at Paris. Final thoughts on the eights?

MS: The British have great Olympic experience with Henry coxing. There’s also an interesting dynamic with some athletes who were gunning for the women’s four but have landed in the eight. They need to use their experience to help bolster the bigger boat. I’m also fascinated to see how the Canadian and the Romanian women’s eights match up in Paris. Romania have only raced once this season. Canada were a surprise package at Tokyo. But this time around Canada are the Olympic champions and with their win at Lucerne they are absolutely in contention. For me, the event as a whole has been very hot and cold. It needs a crew to take it by the horns and own it. I expect the crew who either wins the heat or the rep, will go on and take the gold.

On the men’s side, the British men’s eight have been so good at championship level, the Olympic gold medal is theirs to lose. The Dutch and the Americans might get closer than people expect but I can’t see them getting close enough. The Dutch remind me of their 2004 eight who pulled a surprise silver out of nowhere at the Athens Olympics, another ten strokes and they might have won it.

 This article was updated on August 16, 2024, to reflect the precedence of a defending lightweight women’s double sculler winning the Olympic title, first achieved by Romania’s triple Olympic gold medallist Constanta Burcica.